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Prognosis of social services in the demographic development context in the area of Vlachovo Březí municipality
PETRŮ, Libuše
Social care services in a certain region are highly affected by the demographic development. To evaluate the demand for social care services, the population, age structure, life expectancy, natality and mortality should be considered. There are 1691 inhabitants living in Vlachovo Březí as at 31 December 2008. Most social care services for the town residents are provided by other municipalities of the Prachatice district. The thesis was aimed at document analysis and a subsequent statistical procedure which, together with future demographic development, formed a basis for the prognosis of the demand for social care services in Vlachovo Březí at the age groups 0-7, 15-18 and 65+ years during the 2010-2020 period. The other goal was to find out the use of social care allowances by beneficiaries and financial costs of the allowances for 65+ age group in Vlachovo Březí. Based on the prognosis for single age groups and the evaluation of the current social services, the findings are as follows: As an early years child care service (0-7 years) does not exist in the district, a necessity of setting up such a facility, which will serve this age group in the district centre (Prachatice), can be expected. Social care services for the age group between 15-18 years are currently insufficient so to build a low-treshold facility should become a priority. The age group 65+ is supposed to grow. A senior home has not been established in Vlachovo Březí and the surroundings. There is a possible way in setting up a nursing home with a simultaneous enhancement of community care services. In addition, the research helped us discover the fact that expenses on the social care allowances are not spent effectively and financial costs of them will increase 1.5 times in the next 10 years. The future revaluation of a current system of the allowance payment or a dependancy rate of the beneficiaries seems to be necessary. There are 1184 beneficiaries in the Prachatice municipality with extended competence as at 31 December 2009. This thesis can serve as a draft plan of social care services in the region. It can also be helpful in further research into this topic and the dissemination of the research findings.
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Population ageing and replacement migration in the Czech republic
Pavlov, Vratislav ; Langhamrová, Jitka (advisor) ; Fiala, Tomáš (referee)
Population ageing is one of the most important current problems in developed countries. The goal of my work is the analysis of economic and social problems occasioned by population ageing, population prognosis and the possibility of compensation a population loss and changes in age structure through replacement migration. This is all in the Czech Republic. For my work I will use readily available information databases, mainly the database provided by Czech Statistical Office and the databases of relevant ministries in the Czech Republic. At first I will make demographic predictions using a component method without migration and then I will use replacement migration to compensate a population loss and changes in selected demoeconomic characteristics. The contribution of my work is in the concretization of methodology for calculating the replacement migration and in the results obtained from this study, which will show feasibility of this concept in practice. Last but not least I will look for solutions to the adverse economic impact of population ageing. In my study at first I will explain the concept of an ageing population and analyze past demographic trends in the Czech Republic. The entire chapter I will attend to migration and migration policy. Then I will focus on demographic forecast and especially replacement migration. At the end of my work I will analyze the economic impacts of an ageing population and the possibilities for their solution.
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